Most organizations still imagine leadership as a ladder: expert individual contributor, first‑line manager, middle manager, senior leader, executive. The model is tidy. Reality is not. HRBPs see the misfires: a brilliant engineer pushed into people management too early; a steady coordinator who excels at coalition building but is invisible in calibration sessions.

Your role is to turn “potential” into a testable hypothesis. Start with the ladder’s behaviors rather than the labels: decision scope, ambiguity tolerance, time horizon, stakeholder orchestration, and recovery from setbacks. Map those to weighted competencies with clear anchors. Now you can design sensible trials: a first‑line manager pilot with guardrails, or a cross‑functional lead assignment without direct reports but heavy influence demands.

Two cautions:

• Context matters. A first‑line manager in a stable process environment is not the same as a lead in a shifting, cross‑functional program. Keep the anchors contextual.
• Charisma ≠ capability. Panels often overweight presence. Use behavioral anchors to keep “executive potential” from becoming code for style.

As you gather evidence, narrate the slope. “Given strong Planning and credible Influence, we expect near‑term success with support X and Y; next check‑point in 60 days.” If the signal is muddy, say so. Not everyone needs to climb rapidly. Some should deepen expertise; others should move laterally across functions. The point is to treat potential as a living, evidence‑based bet—not a prophecy.

Check out the MANAGEMENT POTENTIAL Report